Tuesday, January 10, 2012

It is still romney's to loose

The citizens of New Hampshire vote today in the New Hampshire primary. I say that New Hampshire is till Romney's to loose because if we go by historical numbers - no statewide elected official from Massachusetts has ever lost the New Hampshire primary in an open field except Romney in 2008. Additionally, after spending millions over ad campaigns, far exceeding that spend by any other candidate in the race, there better be no upsets today.

After his fractional victory in Iowa and the amount of issues that he has to explain to the voters, it is going to be a good fight rather than an out right victory for Romney. This fight is also being fueled by the so called "Huntsman Surge" after a solid debate performance. Per CNN - 'He's an unapologetic fiscal conservative with an impressive executive accomplishment as governor of Utah. He's got unparalleled foreign policy experience as an ambassador in both Republican and Democratic administrations. And almost alone among these GOP candidates, he has refused to pander to the hyper-partisan tide polarizing American politics -- which makes him a strong general-election candidate.'

I feel Santorum is the underdog to watch out for today. How his campaign performs will be something that will pave the way for coming weeks. The other key things to watch out for are - how Ron Paul fares and who all will drop out after today's race. With record number of voters expected, may the best candidate win! 






Monday, January 9, 2012

romney dominates. santorum refudiates. paul undersells.

After the New Hampshire debate, where the GOP candidates losing hope for the nomination took their final jabs at the front runner - aka Mitt Romney, it was clear that Mitt Romney has come a long way since 2008. He has mastered the skill of handling and responding to direct attacks. As a result he did look like the strongest candidate to be able to take over the calmness of president Obama during the presidential debates later this year. He clearly dominated majority of topics by taking his time to respond and bring his points across.

While Romney was busy solidifying his top spot, Santorum was busy refudiating the claims that some of his previous support to bills proposed by Obama administration were totally non Republican and anti American values. The highlight was the fact that Santorum supported legislation which had no underlying funding mechanism. No plan whatsoever of how the legislation would be paid for except by the government (tax payers money).

Ron Paul is not good at debates. Period. He is the good school boy who always follows the rules of debating (never go above the allotted time, never jump in a conversation even when he is being attacked by his opponent, etc.). He always undersells his ideas and then tries to explain them over and over again. Paul has some great thoughts and ideas on how to bring this country back up, but until he is able to communicate those to the voters clearly, he will not be in a position to execute the same. And if he uses the word liberty more than once in any of the remaining debates, his popularity is going to fall down the charts much faster than William Hung's.

While Huntsman does look like the Ron Paul for the thinking Americans, he has a Herculean task in front of him if he has to overcome the Romney/Santorum/Paul lead. Perry has done himself, his supporters and his campaign a disservice by spending most of his time in TX than campaigning as hard as the other candidates. And for Gingrich, shout and cry as much as he may, the superPAC successfully sealed his fate in Iowa and will continue doing so in the coming weeks and states.

The only good thing that came out of the New Hampshire debate as compared to the Iowa debate was that the candidates talked a lot more about the real issues and how President Obama has failed on the real issues as compared to Iowa where they were busy attacking each other.

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

romney takes iowa by 8 votes

What a historic caucus. The closest ever. Even though Romney took Iowa by 8 votes, I think it is a mental victory for Santorum's campaign. He surged late and peaked at the right time. One can't help but think that the momentum is clearly with Santorum going into New Hampshire. As I stated yesterday, it was Romney's to loose and in my opinion he lost big time. No one even thought of Santorum to be in the race till 3 weeks ago. And now all the blogs, tweets and status updates are buzzing about Santorum. After Iowa, it feels like a race between three candidates - Romney, Santorum and Paul. But I suggest that we buckle up. It might get bumpy ahead!!

Tuesday, January 3, 2012

the Iowa caucuses - the first post for 2012 GOP nomination

It is Romney's to loose all the way. The Superpac has not helped him any. If anything, it would have hurt him. If it is Romney's to loose, it is Paul's or Santorum's to win. Where Ron Paul has the Tea Party support, Santorum has the last minute momentum. Iowa is very close to call.